Vol: 2018-2
YI Seong-Woo(JPI)

The relationship between Korea and the U. S. is one of the key axes in security issues in the Korean Peninsula, and the regional order in East Asia. In spite of the importance of research on the relationship between South Korea and the U.S., their methodology remained centered just on traditional case studies mainly confined to the government transition period.

This study, based on empirical methodology, keeps track of the changes in bilateral relations and predicts their future course by applying the ARIMA model based on the GDELT time series data accumulated by the big data echnique. The ARIMA model, used in various social science disciplines, explains the rise and decline of cooperation and disputes between the U.S. and South Korea by utilizing the time series data on the changes in bilateral relations. Despite the criticism that the result of the time-series research might end up just with a post-diction about the relationship between Korea and the U. S.,this study can have academic implications for future research on bilateral relationships. It points out the feasibility of the time series analysis method for future research on international relations.

In the analysis of the time series of ROK-US disputes, for example, this study shows that South Korea was required to actively cooperate with the U.S. in such case as the proposed return of wartime operational control. The U.S. sought to expand its national interest in East Asia through its active engagement on the Korean Peninsula. Against the backof this kind of security situation, the study explains the reason why the possibility of disputes between the U.S. and South Korea is much lower than that of cooperation in their bilateral relations.