Policy Forum

The Role of Neighboring Countries in the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula after the Summit Meetings and Future Prospects: U.S. 

    Military tensions rose significantly on the Korean peninsula as a result of the 20 North Korean missile launches conducted in 2017. Eleven of these missile launches and North Korea’s sixth nuclear weapons test took place after President Moon took office and President Trump mentioned the possibility of a military strike against North Korea. However, the process of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula has begun with the Moon administration inviting North Korea to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, inter-Korean summit meetin gs on April 27 and May 26, and a North Korea-U.S. summit meeting in Singapore on June 12. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the U.S.’s foreign policy framework and the perspectives of the Trump administration as the U.S. is a major player in the process of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.
Despite the negative public sentiment and critique in the U.S. media, the Trump administration is showing fundamental trust in North Korea’s gestures toward denuclearization and is actively making diplomatic efforts to achieve a complete and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program. While the U.S. is offering to ease sanctions in return for North Korea making more visible and tangible denuclearization efforts, President Trump has stated that denuclearization process will proceed without undue haste and not according to any particular time table.

The Role of Neighboring Countries in the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula after the Summit Meetings and Future Prospects: China

  The security paradigm on the Korean peninsula is rapidly changing because of a new approach that is different from the existing international order as established by powerful nations. The two Koreas, which are the main parties involved in issues on the Korean peninsula, have been proactively working towards denuclearizing the Korean peninsula and the U.S. has actively responded to such efforts, resulting in the inter-Korean summit meeting in April 2018 and the U.S.-North Korea summit meeting in June 2018. Throughout the course of these two summit meetings, China expressed its desire to restore its relations with North Korea through three rounds of summit meetings and to become actively involved in issues on the Korean peninsula as an “interested party.”
By holding the three rounds of summit meetings, North Korea and China were able to recover their relations to a large extent, and China-which used to be excluded in the process of inter-Korean summit meeting and North-Korea-U.S. summit meeting-was able to dismiss the notion of the so-called “China Passing (isolation of China)” while emphasizing that it will play an active role in the denuclearization and peace building efforts on the Korean peninsula. As China, which used to emphasize its role as a “mediator” in the denuclearization issue, is now stressing its role as an “interested party,” it is expected that it will more actively intervene in future efforts on the end-of-war declaration and building a peace regime.

The Role of Russia in the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula after the Summit Meetings

  Based on the discussions currently being had between the two Koreas and between North Korea and the U.S. about denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, it may seem as if every problem can be easily solved through negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. However, if we refrain from this type of wishful thinking and view the situation from multiple perspectives, it is clear that China, Russia, and Japan are important stakeholders as neighbors to the Korean peninsula. Russia directly borders the Korean peninsula and was one of the states directly involved in the decision to divide the two Koreas following the Korean War. It also serves as an ultimate guardian of North Korea’s independence and supports the security of the North Korean regime. Of North Korea’s four neighbors, Russia is the most active supporter of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula and of normalizing the North Korean state.
    This paper discusses Russia’s stances and strategies with regard to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Russia intends to be a main actor in the denuclearization process and to reorganize the political and military order of Northeast Asia to maintain peace through multilateralism. Russia already has successfully mediated between countries involved in major regional conflicts, such as during the nuclear negotiations with Iran or the Syrian civil war.
In May, Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as the Russian president for the fourth time with a term of six years. When starting his third term as president in 2012, Putin pushed an ambitious plan of building a Eurasian modeled on the European that would encompass all of the regions that constituted the former Soviet and of achieving economic development through the New East Policy. However, after the Ukraine crisis broke out in November 2013, Russia has been facing stringent economic sanctions which have increased in the wake of Putin’s annexation of Crimea. These sanctions are the reason why Russia currently has such a strong interest in realigning the political order in northeast Asia.
The Moon administration that took office in 2017 aims to maintain peace and opportunities for prosperity for both North and South Korea and throughout northeast Asia through its New Northern Policy. President Putin may be able to seize new opportunities in northeast Asia and on the Korean peninsula that can serve as substitutes for the exchanges that Russia used to have with Europe, which have decreased significantly since the Ukraine crisis. These opportunities are why Russia is paying keen attention to and trying to play a leading role in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. This paper analyzes the foundations of Russia’s diplomatic policy, its close relations with North Korea, how it intends to promote denuclearization, and its potential for cooperating with South Korea.