Policy Forum

Denuclearization through security assurance is an important policy alternative because economic sanctions have not yet led to denuclearization and military measures are too risky. As can be seen in the Ukrainian crisis, security assurance can be an empty promise, however. Therefore, in order to induce denuclearization through security assurance, it is desirable to promote a denuclearization zone treaty that the US, Russia and China participate in and ratify. If North Korea’s motive for nuclear armament is to disperse their domestic unrest and maintain the regime by generating the rally round the flag effect (diversionary nuclear proliferation), there is a limit in inducing denuclearization even through a perfect security assurance.
Therefore, if the ‘diversion effect’ reaches the exhaustion point, North Korea will be more likely to engage in denuclearization negotiations.
Therefore, if the ‘diversion effect’ reaches the exhaustion point, North Korea will be more likely to engage in denuclearization negotiations.​